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The last time Vladimir Putin traveled to the South Asian nation four years ago, the global landscape was markedly different. The brief visit, curtailed by the pandemic, focused on talks on strategic and defense cooperation between the two leaders.

Not long after, the full-scale invasion of its neighbor would transform the Russian leader into a global pariah, greatly limiting his overseas engagements.

Furthermore, that period preceded a major change in US-India relations, marked by inflammatory rhetoric and the introduction of heavy import duties.

"In this context, the importance of this diplomatic mission to engage with the Indian PM cannot be overstated, serving as a signal of resilient relations and a rejection of external pressure," analysts note.

A Critical Juncture for Two Major Powers

The summit takes place at a crucial time. The Kremlin leader comes after rejecting latest peace proposals for Ukraine, bolstered by reported advances by Russian forces.

"For Russia, the key significance of this visit is its simple happening," commented a senior researcher based in Moscow. "It indicates a return to something resembling routine global diplomacy."

For India, the risks are even higher. The country navigates a challenging international environment, characterized by a less engaged United States, a diminished Russia, and an increasingly powerful China.

This delicate balance was underscored just before the visit, when European ambassadors published a joint opinion piece criticizing Russia's commitment to peace. This prompted a firm rebuke from Indian officials, who called it an unacceptable diplomatic practice.

The Enduring Challenge from the North

The India-Russia bond dates back to the Cold War era and is firmly rooted, with Moscow historically being Delhi's primary defense supplier. This relationship was largely tolerated by the West until a recent shift.

For years, Western nations overlooked India's large-scale buying of discounted Russian oil. However, recently stalled diplomacy, accusations mounted, leading to punitive tariffs and a major chill in transatlantic relations with Delhi.

"In response, India has returned to its default strategy of 'hedging'," explained a strategic analyst. "It signals to the US that it has other choices and is observing how the global dynamics settle."

Apart from global diplomacy, India's core motivation with Russia is geography. "Beijing continues to be the primary security challenge to India, and historically, India has depended on Russia as a counterweight against China," the analyst stated.

The strengthening Moscow-Beijing axis has raised alarms in Delhi, prompting efforts to prevent an excessively close bond between its adversary and its traditional ally.

This apprehension has also spurred India's drive to reduce its defense procurement, shrinking its reliance on Russian equipment from about 70% to a reduced portion in the past few years.

"India will attempt to strike a balance: buy sufficient Russian arms to maintain the alliance, but not become so dependent that a supply disruption would leave it vulnerable," the analyst concluded.

Energy and Economic Ties

Enhanced economic cooperation is expected to be a major topic. President Putin has publicly stressed plans to take cooperation with India to a "higher plane", defying Western sanctions.

The issue of crude oil purchases remains central. Although the Indian government has vowed to keep buying Russian oil, recent restrictions have dampened activity from the private sector. At the same time, India has agreed to increase imports of US energy.

A Russian official admitted "obstacles" in economic cooperation but said it would continue uninterrupted. The official minimized the effect of sanctions, claiming they would cause only "insignificant" and "brief" drops and that Russia possesses the "means" to circumvent them.

Limited Leverage on Ukraine

When the two leaders sit down, the topic of Ukraine is likely to be addressed primarily through India's standard call for dialogue and peace.

"While the Indian leader can speak to all parties, India lacks the diplomatic clout to significantly influence the war," the analyst noted. "Aside from encouraging talks, its ability to effect change is constrained."

In the end, notwithstanding the public displays of camaraderie between the two leaders, the partnership is at its core one of "pure realpolitik," guided by national interest in a volatile world.